Slarrow

"Slarrow" refers to the "slings and arrows of outrageous fortune" from Hamlet's soliloquy. Here are the chronicles of such darts and whatever attempt there may be to take arms against such a sea of troubles.

Name:
Location: Ozarks, United States

Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Predictions

I'm getting my November post out of the way early by stating some predictions for the elections (which are occuring right now.) I think the Republicans hold both the House and Seante and that they do shockingly well in the Senate. I predict that Amendment 2 will be defeated here in MO, as will Claire McCaskill.

Why do I think the Republicans will do better than expected? Because a pair of twos beats an ace high. Sure, the Republicans have made lots of mistakes and have given people in a lot of districts reasons to vote against them (scandals and the like.) But Democrats have not given people a corresponding reason to vote for them.

Part of the main message from the national Democrats has been "change is coming", counting on the dissatisfaction people have with the status quo. But "change" messages only resonate when people are dissatisfied and restless. The American people are dissatisfied, all right, but I think their secondary attribute is vagueness: they don't like what's happening, but they don't quite know what to do about it. Vagueness doesn't drive a desire to sign up for a GOTV drive, and it really doesn't help turnout.

All the conventional wisdom points the other way, I know. But the thing about the term "conventional wisdom": it's half right.